Release evidence · Frozen tool replay, not live pricing

Release scorecard · v1.2.0 · October 15, 2026

Tested against
the agent it replaces.

On the same 25 holdout cases, the v1.2.0 candidate passed all three attempts on 78.4% of cases on average over five runs, against 72.0% for the production agent it replaces (v1.1.2). The 6.4-point gain is about the size of run-to-run variation, so it is an observed improvement, not a proven one.

Holdout cases passing all 3 · mean of 5 runs

78.4%

+6.4 pp vs production agent72.0% for v1.1.2 · same 25 cases

Holdout attempts passed · 5 runs

86.4%

+2.1 pp, within run-to-run spread324/375 candidate · 316/375 v1.1.2

Training cases passing all 3 · 1 run

82%

+4 pp vs production agent78% for v1.1.2 · 50 exposed cases

Holdout run-to-run range · pass³

72–88%

v1.1.2: 64–76%The two ranges overlap

Old agent and new agent, same cases.

Every comparison row was measured on October 15 with one approved evaluator, alternating old and new runs.

Pass³ = cases passing all three attempts

Scroll the table sideways to compare both agents.

Same 25 holdout cases and evaluator; five holdout runs and one training run per agent.
Measurev1.1.2 production agent
prompt 2.3.15 · tool 1.5.1
v1.2.0 candidate
prompt 2.3.17 · tool 1.6.0
Comparable?
Holdout pass³ by run72 · 76 · 76 · 64 · 7272 · 72 · 88 · 72 · 88Yes: same 25 cases, evaluator and settings
Holdout pass³ · mean of 5 runs72.0%78.4%Yes · +6.4 pp, within run-to-run spread
Holdout attempts passed316/375 · 84.3%324/375 · 86.4%Yes · +2.1 pp, within run-to-run spread
Inconclusive holdout attempts4/3751/375Yes · counted as not passed
Training pass³ · 1 run78% · 39/5082% · 41/50Yes · exposed cases, used while tuning
Training minus holdout pass³+6.0 pp+3.6 ppDescriptive · one training run each
Evaluation cost per holdout run$0.35$0.35Yes · includes simulated user and judge
September 27 scorecard: 89.7% attempts, 78% pass³Measured for prompt 2.3.15Not measuredNot comparable · retired 100-case development set, older harness

What changed, and what the numbers cannot say.

Two agent changes shipped together; the measurement covers their combined effect.

Changes to the agent

Pre-call route check (prompt 2.3.16). Before pricing, the agent checks that each entry and exit belong to the same road and direction, keeping the places the user asked for. In the October 10 training runs it cut rejected pricing calls from 16 to 8 per run.

Eastern display times (prompt 2.3.17, tool 1.6.0). The pricing tool now supplies ready-to-show New York times such as “5:12 PM EDT”, and the agent copies them. Before the fix, two of three production observed-time answers were four hours early.

20-turn chats, chat persistence across a refresh, and billing alerts also ship in v1.2.0. They sit outside the agent’s prompt and tools, and these runs do not measure them.

Limits of this evidence

The holdout is not blind. Its cases were read on October 10 to diagnose failures and then repaired, and earlier aggregate holdout scores informed the prompt 2.3.16 choice. Treat these results as descriptive, not as unseen-production accuracy.

Frozen tool replay, five runs. Tools replay recorded data rather than live prices. In these runs, single runs of identical code moved by up to 16 points, so five runs per agent cannot confirm a gain of a few points.

The production agent ran holdout and training 5.2.2 because it cannot read tool 1.6.0’s new time fields. Version 5.2.13 adds only those derived strings: cases, routes and prices are identical.

The evidence behind v1.2.0.

Measured contracts for both agents, pinned to these runs.

Holdout aggregates · Frozen replay
Published prompt contract
2.3.17 · baseline 2.3.15
Current-price tool contract
1.6.0 · baseline 1.5.1
Annual-estimate tool contract
3.0.1 · unchanged
Prompt renderer
1.0.2 · unchanged
Holdout / training corpus
5.2.13 · baseline 5.2.2
Evaluation harness
2.5.19 · both agents
Cases
25 holdout · 50 training
Application configuration
gpt-6-luna · low · 2,048 tokens
How these numbers were measured

Success: an attempt succeeds only when every required Outcome, Grounding, Rules, and mechanical check passes on a valid scored attempt. Pass³ is the share of cases that succeed on all three attempts, counted directly rather than cubed from the attempt rate. An inconclusive attempt, where the simulated user was invalid, counts as not passed.

Design: old and new runs alternated on one day, five of each with the old agent first in each pair, under the same approved evaluator calibration. Each holdout run covers all 25 cases three times. One training run per agent covers the 50 training cases three times.

Uncertainty: the page reports every run and its range. Only aggregate scores leave the holdout store, so this entry publishes no case-level bootstrap interval.

The production agent: v1.1.2’s prompt and tools ran on the harness commit that introduced 2.5.19. Its prompt, agent and tool code match v1.1.2 byte for byte, except a version label that reads 2.3.16. Earlier holdout runs of the same agent, on October 10 under harness 2.5.18, scored 76%, 60% and 48%.

Provenance: the candidate was measured at commit 532f9fed. Between the measured commit and v1.2.0, only the RDS trust-bundle pin and this scorecard changed; no prompt, tool or agent code. The measurement cost $4.77 across all model roles.

Release scorecard · September 27, 2026

A measured
step forward.

More successful attempts. More cases that work three times in a row. A retained candidate with observed gains. We cannot yet separate the improvement confidently from noise.

Successful attempts

89.7%

+4.0 percentage points269/300 final · 257/300 baseline

Cases passing all 3 attempts

78%

+10 percentage points78/100 final · 68/100 baseline

Repeat-score spread · sample SD

0.58 pp

Baseline: 4.04 ppThree observed repetitions per version

Development target

−2 attempts

269 successes · 271 requiredRetained under the above-baseline rule

The engineering verdict

Observed gains.
Still an open question.

The final run gained 12 successful attempts over baseline. Its 95% interval for the change includes zero. The evidence supports an observed improvement, not a conclusive claim that the candidate is better.

Decision: retain the candidate.
Ryan accepted the completed final run. The target remains unmet; annual route handling remains weaker. No retry was used to seek a passing score.

Does the gain clear the noise?

Change in success rate · percentage points · descriptive 95% interval

Observed gain of 4.0 percentage points, with a 95% interval from 0.0 to 8.4 points The interval reaches the zero-change line. It does not clearly distinguish improvement from noise on this exposed development set. +4.0 pp 0.0+8.4 −20+2+4+6+8+10

Zero means no improvement. Resampling keeps linked scenarios and all three attempts together. It pairs scenarios across versions, not random draws.

Final score interval: 85.1%–93.7%
Baseline descriptive interval: 80.7%–90.3%
Consistency gain interval: 0.0 to +20.8 pp

Where the gains landed.

Seven coverage families equaled or improved on baseline. Annual routing moved backward.

Successful attempts / planned attempts

Scroll the table sideways to compare baseline, final, and change.

Coverage familyBaselineFinal verificationChange
Complete current requests41/60 · 68.3%
46/60 · 76.7%46/60
+8.3 pp
Current clarification / state25/30 · 83.3%
28/30 · 93.3%28/30
+10.0 pp
Current evidence interpretation27/30 · 90.0%
30/30 · 100%30/30
+10.0 pp
Complete annual requests56/60 · 93.3%
57/60 · 95.0%57/60
+1.7 pp
Annual input collection40/45 · 88.9%
42/45 · 93.3%42/45
+4.4 pp
Annual route handling26/30 · 86.7%
23/30 · 76.7%23/30
−10.0 pp
Annual interpretation27/30 · 90.0%
28/30 · 93.3%28/30
+3.3 pp
Switching workflows15/15 · 100%
15/15 · 100%15/15
0.0 pp

A good answer once is not enough.

Repeatability measures how often the same case succeeds across three fresh attempts.

Three repetitions, all included

Each repetition covers the same 100 cases.

Baseline
82%85%90%
SD 4.04 pp
Final
90%90%89%
SD 0.58 pp

The final scores clustered more tightly in this sample. Three unseeded repetitions do not establish stable variance or production reliability.

Consistency across cases

Successful attempts per case, counted directly.

Baseline · 68 of 100 cases passed all three

Final · 78 of 100 cases passed all three

0 of 31 of 32 of 33 of 3

Final consistency interval: 69.9%–85.9%. Three cases still never succeeded in this sample.

The tradeoffs behind the score.

Remaining errors, model cost, and evaluation time belong in the release decision.

Fewer recorded violations; route failures remain

MeasureBaselineFinal
Grounding violations · scored trials3/2990/300
Rules violations · scored trials39/29931/300
Inconclusive attempts1/3000/300
Returned-alternative scenarios7/9 passed6/9 passed

The baseline inconclusive had one additional observed Rules finding. Violation categories can overlap; zero observed Grounding violations does not establish zero risk. Wrong endpoint variants and changed return routes remain.

Model spend stays small

MeasureBaselineFinal
Application cost / attempt$0.001201$0.001247
Application cost / success$0.001402$0.001391
Whole evaluation trial · p5025.65 s25.98 s
Whole evaluation trial · p9540.63 s42.84 s

Application cost excludes actors, judges, hosting, and engineering. Evaluation times include actors and judges; they are not measured user response times. Final verification cost $1.1585 across all model roles.

The evidence behind this release.

Measured contracts are pinned to this candidate, not today’s repository defaults.

Development evidence · Holdout not evaluated

Scroll the table sideways to compare all three runs.

Search selected the candidate; separate final verification determines the delivery claim.
MeasureFixed baselineSelected searchFinal verification
Successful attempts257/300 · 85.7%274/300 · 91.3%269/300 · 89.7%
Cases passing all 368/10083/10078/100
Inconclusive attempts100
Published prompt contract
2.3.15 · baseline 2.3.14
Prompt renderer
1.0.2 · baseline 1.0.0
Evaluated corpus / harness
3.3.27 / 2.3.27
Case contract
2 · 100 cases / 99 groups
Current-price tool contract
1.5.1
Annual-estimate tool contract
3.0.1
Application configuration
gpt-6-luna · low reasoning
Application output limit
2,048 tokens
How to read these numbers

Success: all required Outcome, Grounding, Rules, and mechanical checks must pass on a valid scored attempt. Headline success uses all 300 planned slots. The baseline’s one inconclusive receives no success credit; its scored-only rate is 257/299 (86.0%), distinct from the headline 257/300 (85.7%). Nothing was dropped or replaced.

Uncertainty: descriptive 95% percentile intervals use 10,000 bootstrap draws, seed 360, resampling the 99 scenario groups in sorted order. Linked cases and all three attempts stay together. The change interval resamples the same groups across baseline and final, compares their success rates using each draw’s slot count, and does not treat attempt numbers as paired random seeds. The baseline interval is supplemental: its canonical runner interval is null because of the inconclusive. The final success interval matches the recorded runner result.

Consistency and dispersion: cases passing all three attempts are counted directly. Their intervals preserve the same scenario groups and use each draw’s case count. SD is the sample standard deviation of the three repetition success rates, in percentage points. These repetitions share cases and unseeded model sampling; a narrow observed spread is not a guarantee.

What changed: an explicit cancellation instruction stops clarification and pricing after cancellation. Directed entry-to-exit relationships in the location catalog, with selection guidance, help choose direction variants together. The combined candidate’s aggregate gain does not prove which edit caused which change.

Limits: these are exposed development cases under frozen tool replay, after candidate search on the same set. They do not estimate unseen-production accuracy, execute live pricing, or establish production qualification. Recorded grades are preserved, including known grading limitations. The selected search run is subject to selection bias and is not pooled with final verification.

Provenance: final verification evaluated commit 46476e87. It recorded prompt metadata 2.3.14 with the candidate SOP; publication advanced only that version literal to 2.3.15. All 100 rendered prompt hashes, tool schemas, model settings, and measurement inputs matched. The normal development workflow still defaults to one repetition. No holdout was evaluated for this entry.